Rubber accelerator CBS’s market outlook

2018-08-16


    Recently, due to multiple factors, the price of accelerators continued to decline, especially since last month. The price of mainstream brands is close to the same period last year.

    The specific analysis is as follow picture:

微信截图_20180816151136.png

    The above picture shows the recent trend of rubber accelerators. It can be seen that the promoter products represented by the sulfonamide accelerator CBS in 2018 are in a downward trend, especially after June. From the perspective of market prices, the price level at the beginning of 2018 was around 32,000 yuan/ton, while the current market price level was basically at the level of 26,500-27,000 yuan/ton, a drop of 15.6%-17.2%.

    From the same period of last year, the CBS market price level is 24,750 yuan / ton, the market price still has about 1700 yuan / ton of space, the current factory price has a low level of 25,000-26,000 yuan / ton, and last year's market price is almost the same, and The difference is that the same period last year was the low point before the price rose sharply, and the market outlook rose, but now it is the low point of the sharp drop in prices, and there is still room for bearishness in the later period.

    The reason is that the sharp increase in the price of accelerators is mainly affected by two aspects. First, the impact of price fluctuations of major raw materials on costs; second, the imbalance of supply and demand.

From the main raw materials of the accelerator, aniline has a great influence on the promoter intermediate M. Especially last year, the sharp increase in the price of aniline drove the price increase of the promoter M and other brands, and the price of aniline fell sharply in June. Lowering the price of mainstream brands such as accelerator CBS, although the price of M did not immediately drop sharply due to tight supply, but the price of acid-base method M and solvent method M showed a large price difference, the price difference from the original 1000 Yuan/ton has increased to 2000-3000 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of supply and demand, although the overall supply of accelerators was not high under the influence of the policy during the year, the relative supply side increased, mainly due to the decline in the demand for accelerators for major downstream tires and non-tire rubber products during the year. Leading to further imbalances in supply and demand.

    In the short-term, the third quarter is in the high temperature season. The rubber products industry such as tires is under low overall operation, and the overall demand for accelerators is not very strong. The supply of mainstream brands such as CBS is relatively stable, and the relative supply side may continue to be higher than the relative demand side. The fluctuation of raw material prices has limited impact on the accelerator M.

    Dalian Richon believes that the prices of accelerators such as CBS may still fall in Q3 and Q4 of 2018. The price may stable at end of 2018 and increase in Q1 of 2019, during Chinese new year’s holidies (around Feb.5th)


Dalian Richon Chem 

July 23, 2018


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